It is January 2019 and the mid-term elections went extremely well for the Democrats. They didn’t secure control over the Senate, but they won the House by electing an additional 40 Members. The Democrats also selected the most effective candidate for Speaker of the House, Nancy Pelosi. Could you imagine any of the other self-offered candidates for that post facing-off against Trump during the current Government shutdown?

Okay, the Democratic Party made the right choice for Speaker, but the big test of their sagacity and wisdom is now before them: choosing their 2020 candidates for President and Vice-President. Lots of people want the top job. For the sake of the  country and perhaps the health of the entire planet, they better make the correct choice. Of course, it is relatively early and events may force changes in the equation: Trump may start a war, be impeached and removed from office. He could, faced with Nixon-style alternatives, resign with the promise of a pardon. Such options would produce Mike Pence as President, but the Democratic battle-plan for the White House would not require severe modifications.

The key to success is to not repeat the mistakes of 2016. A smart, competent, hard-working and likable candidate is required, matched by the best campaign staff that can be recruited. Hillary turned out to be disaster waiting to happen: overconfidence, ego, algorithms, and complacency payed a large role in the electoral fiasco that occurred.

The Democratic candidates for President are and likely to be: Senators Sherrod Brown, Kamala Harris, Elizabeth Warren, Kirsten Gillibrand, and Cory Booker. Former Congressmen Beto O’Rourke and John Delaney, as well as Obama Cabinet Secretary Julian Castro, will also be in the race. I do not believe Sen. Bernie Sanders will make the run.  Finally, Joe Biden is, according to press reports, preparing to enter the competition.

With the above list in mind, and the 2016 campaign serving as a haunting reminder of what could have been, it’s time to handicap the race and offer some perspective.

Although turnout was okay for the Democrats in 2016, and promising two years later, they must do better in the necessary states. To lose by a combination of 77,000 votes in Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, must not happen again. The so-called political “experts,” including Hillary and Obama, thought the former was going to win, so they didn’t pay enough attention to the demands of the electoral college.  The Republicans designed their campaign on exactly that, and will do so again.

Democrats, especially liberals, usually dislike gaming an election by formulating and manipulating a plan on the basis of identity politics. Nevertheless, they cannot afford to ignore the concerns and fears of their respective constituencies in each state. Otherwise, it’s as that noted philosopher Yogi Berra so eloquently put it, “deja vu all over again” for the 2020 election.

In this context, next week I will reveal my choices for the Democratic Party nominees, as well as examine the electoral prospects of those mentioned.